Do Your Own Research: Don't Listen to Experts

Don't believe what experts say (including the one writing this article!): Do your own research.

Market research companies had once predicted that sales of digital cameras would level off while there would be a boom in camera phones (shown in the form of a graph). (The writer of this article was also involved in making this projection). While it did seem like a logical evolution, this was not what happened. For instance, while we started to watch a lot more video on our computers, we still bought larger and better television sets. The same happened in the camera phone/digital camera business. In fact, IDC now calls it a myth that “That camera phones will replace digital cameras.” According to their Mobile Imaging Survey, “The camera phone is more of a gateway product in the U.S., and creates, rather than destroys digital camera users.”

What does it mean for the Business Modeler?

• Don’t believe everything that analysts and experts (including yours truly) say, and particularly, when they forecast. These guys are no better at forecasting than a psychic or a monkey is.
• Human behavior is impossible to predict. So do not base your business model on a certain expected change. Incorporate unexpected scenarios in your business planning so that if things do not turn out the way they were predicted, you can still survive. The dot-com taught us that lesson really well.
• Do your own research. Use multiple sources of data and add your own research to it. And once you are done, don’t just sit back and hope that things will turn out the way they were predicted. Stay on top of trends and keep refining your forecasts based on continuous research.

(To read the article on www.iproceed.com, please click here)